KR
KILROY REALTY CORP (KRC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 EPS of $0.33 beat S&P Global consensus of ~$0.29, while revenue of $270.8M missed the ~$276.8M consensus; FFO/diluted came in at $1.02. Management affirmed FY25 FFO guidance and raised FY25 diluted net income per share guidance range to $1.08–$1.29 . EPS consensus and revenue consensus values are from S&P Global.*
- Top operating themes: leasing momentum in San Francisco and Seattle (AI, RTO tailwinds), negative second-generation re‑leasing spreads due to one large low‑capital renewal, and occupancy stepped down 140 bps q/q to 81.4% (known Q1 move‑outs) .
- Guidance catalysts: FY25 FFO per share reaffirmed at $3.85–$4.05; diluted net income per share range increased; average occupancy still guided to 80–82% for 2025, and cash same‑property NOI growth guided to −1.5% to −3.0% .
- Capital allocation: entered agreement to sell five acres at Santa Fe Summit for $38M (as‑of‑right residential), with broader land monetization over time; dividend maintained at $0.54/share (declared/payed in April; next declared May 20) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong strategic positioning in SF: “rapid expansion of new AI business formation… RTO mandates… crime rate now the lowest in 23 years” driving tours up 60% y/y and largest SF lease since 2019 at 201 3rd Street (~60k sf) .
- Pipeline build and regional activity: portfolio‑wide tour activity up 40% y/y; Bellevue and San Diego highlighted as strongest markets; Indeed Tower (Austin) and West 8th (Seattle) seeing improving lease rates and activity .
- FY25 net income per share guidance raised versus February; FFO per share guidance affirmed, signaling confidence in plan despite volatility .
What Went Wrong
- Re‑leasing spreads: second‑gen GAAP and cash re‑leasing spreads were −15.8% and −23.0%, largely due to one short‑term, low‑capital transaction; excluding it, cash spreads would have been ~−8.3% (similar to Q4) .
- Occupancy/Leased step‑down: stabilized occupancy declined to 81.4% (from 82.8% in Q4) and leased to 83.9% (from 84.9%), reflecting known Q1 move‑outs (DermTech downsizing, 23andMe expected in Q2) and redevelopment assets entering the stabilized pool later in 2025 .
- Cash same‑property NOI fell 1.6% y/y; CFO cited negative mix from occupancy trajectory and fewer nonrecurring items relative to 2H24 .
Financial Results
Segment/Region Occupancy (Stabilized Office):
Why the miss/beat:
- Revenue miss versus consensus reflects lower stabilized occupancy and negative spreads, offset partially by contractual escalators; cash same‑property NOI declined 1.6% y/y . EPS beat versus consensus likely aided by lower interest expense vs Q1 2024 ($31.1M vs $38.9M) and broader cost discipline . EPS/revenue consensus values are from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Office demand in our markets continues to rebound… materially growing demand from the burgeoning AI industry. San Francisco best represents the intersection of these important trends.” — Angela Aman, CEO .
- “We remain very active on the capital allocation front… signed an agreement to sell a portion of our Santa Fe Summit site in San Diego for a gross price of $38 million.” — Angela Aman .
- “FFO was $1.02 per diluted share… cash same‑property NOI declined 160 bps y/y. Occupancy ended the quarter at 81.4%, down from 82.8% at year‑end.” — Jeffrey Kuehling, CFO .
- “The transaction market… a wider array of capital pursuing deals… endorsement that the changes in the city are tangible and putting San Francisco on the right track.” — Eliott Trencher, CIO .
Q&A Highlights
- Flower Mart: Company actively redesigning to enable phased execution; current assumption is stopping capitalization in 2H25 without near‑term development; timing uncertain pending city dialogue .
- Leasing spreads: One large short‑term, low‑capital deal depressed cash/GAAP spreads; excluding it, cash spreads ~−8.3%, similar to Q4 .
- Occupancy guidance: DermTech downsizing (81k sf) moved to Q2; 23andMe (~65k sf) contemplated; redevelopment assets entering stabilized pool will pressure occupancy in Q3; Q4 expected positive net absorption .
- KOP2 leasing/occupancy timing: Spec suite tenants can move “quickly”; full‑floor shell users typically 9–12+ months to occupy .
- Santa Fe Summit entitlements: Phase 1 is as‑of‑right residential; confidence in execution; broader site likely not office/life science (higher/better use) .
Estimates Context
- EPS beat; revenue miss. Near‑term estimate implications: model lower occupancy trajectory and negative second‑gen spreads, offset by cost control and lower interest expense; FY25 FFO range maintained. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- EPS beat with revenue miss: occupancy and spreads pressured top line, but cost/interest dynamics supported EPS; monitor spread normalization excluding short‑term anomalies .
- Guidance quality: FFO per share reaffirmed; diluted net income per share raised—confidence in execution despite occupancy headwinds and competitive SSF life‑science supply .
- Leasing momentum catalysts: AI and RTO tailwinds strongest in SF/Seattle; pipeline up ~15% q/q with tours +40% y/y; watch SF deal flow and Bellevue/San Diego activity for 2H25 absorption .
- Land monetization: $38M Santa Fe Summit under contract; management targets $150M+ over time—potential upside to balance sheet flexibility and capital deployment (debt reduction/buybacks) .
- Occupancy trajectory: Q2 likely reflects remaining known move‑outs; redevelopment assets enter stabilized pool in Q3 (denominator effect); Q4 targeted for positive net absorption .
- SSF KOP2: amenity‑rich, scale‑capable campus draws life‑science and selective office uses; spec suites enable faster occupancy; shell users 9–12+ months—expect contribution in 2026 .
- Dividend stability: $0.54/share maintained; watch FFO coverage (FFO/FAD payout ratios) and capital recycling to sustain distributions through the cycle .
* Values retrieved from S&P Global
Citations: Press release and supplemental: . Earnings call transcript: . Prior quarter materials: .